Like most successful stock pickers, Warren Buffett thinks that the efficient market theory is
absolute rubbish. Buffett has backed up his beliefs with a successful track record through
Berkshire Hathaway, his publicly traded holding company.
Maria Crawford Scott examined Warren Buffett's approach in the January 1998 issue of the AAII
Journal. Table 1 below provides a summary of Buffett's investment style. In this article, we
develop a screen to identify promising businesses and then use valuation models to measure
the attractiveness of stocks passing the preliminary screen.
Buffett has never expounded extensively on his investment approach, although it can be
gleaned from his writings in the Berkshire Hathaway annual reports. Many books by outsiders
have attempted to explain Buffett's investment approach. One recently published book that
discusses his approach in an interesting and methodical fashion is "Buffettology: The Previously
Unexplained Techniques That Have Made Warren Buffett the World's Most Famous Investor," by
Mary Buffett, a former daughter-in-law of Buffett's, and David Clark, a family friend and
portfolio manager [published by Simon & Schuster, 800-223-2336; $27.00]. This book was used
as the basis for this article.
Monopolies vs. Commodities
Warren Buffett seeks first to identify an excellent business and then to acquire the firm if the
price is right. Buffett is a buy-and-hold investor who prefers to hold the stock ofa good
company earning 15% year after year over jumping from investment to investment with the
hope of a quick 25% gain. Once a good company is identified and purchased at an attractive
price, it is held for the long-term until the business loses its attractiveness or until a more
attractive alternative investment becomes available.
Buffett seeks businesses whose product or service will be in constant and growing demand. In
his view, businesses can be divided into two basic types:
Commodity-based firms, selling products where price is the single most important factor
determining purchase. Buffett avoids commodity-based firms. They are characterized with high
levels of competition in which the low-cost producer wins because of the freedom to establish
prices. Management is key for the long-term success of these types of firms.
Consumer monopolies, selling products where there is no effective competitor, either due to a
patent or brand name or similar intangible that makes the product or service unique.
While Buffett is considered a value investor, he passes up the stocks of commodity-based firms
even if they can be purchased at a price below the intrinsic value of the firm. An enterprise
with poor inherent economics often remains that way. The stock of a mediocre business treads
water.
How do you spot a commodity-based company? Buffett looks for these characteristics:
The firm has low profit margins (net income divided by sales);
The firm has low return on equity (earnings per share divided by book value per share);
Absence of any brand-name loyalty for its products;
The presence of multiple producers;
The existence of substantial excess capacity;
Profits tend to be erratic; and
The firm's profitability depends upon management's ability to optimize the use of tangible assets.
Buffett seeks out consumer monopolies. These are companies that have managed to create a
product or service that is somehow unique and difficult to reproduce by competitors, either
due to brand-name loyalty, a particular niche that only a limited number companies can enter,
or an unregulated but legal monopoly such as a patent.
Consumer monopolies can be businesses that sell products or services. Buffett reveals three
types of monopolies:
Businesses that make products that wear out fast or are used up quickly and have brand-name
appeal that merchants must carry to attract customers. Nike is a good example of a firm with a
strong brand name demanded by customers. Any store selling athletic shoes must carry Nike
products to remain competitive. Other examples include leading newspapers, drug companies
with patents, and popular brand-name restaurants such as McDonald's.
Communications firms that provide a repetitive service that manufacturers must use to
persuade the public to buy the manufacturer's products. All businesses must advertise their
items, and many of the available media face little competition. These include worldwide
advertising agencies, magazine publishers, newspapers, and telecommunications networks.
Businesses that provide repetitive consumer services that people and businesses are in constant
need of. Examples include tax preparers, insurance companies, and investment firms.
Mary Buffett suggests going to your local 7-Eleven or White Hen Pantry to identify many of
these "must-have" products. These stores typically carry a very limited line of must-have
products such as Marlboro cigarettes and Wrigley's gum. However, with the guidance of the
factors used to identify attractive companies, we can establish a basic screen to identify
potential investments worthy of further analysis.
The rules used for our Buffett screen are identified and discussed in Table 2. AAII's Stock
Investor Professional was used to perform the screen. Consumer monopolies typically have high
profit margins because of their unique niche; however, a simple screen for high margins may
highlight weak firms in industries with traditionally high margins, but low turnover levels.
Our first screening filters looked for firms with both gross operating and net profit margins
above the median for their industry. The operating margin concerns itself with the costs
directly associated with production of the goods and services, while the net margin takes all of
the company activities and actions into account.
Understand How It Works
As is common with successful investors, Buffett only invests in companies he can understand.
Individuals should try to invest in areas where they possess some specialized knowledge and
can more effectively judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment. While it
is difficult to construct a quantitative filter, an investor should be able to identify areas of
interest. An investor should only consider analyzing those firms operating in areas that they can
clearly grasp.
Conservative Financing
Consumer monopolies tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt.
Buffett does not object to the use of debt for a good purpose--for example, if a company uses
debt to finance the purchase of another consumer monopoly. However, he does object if the
added debt is used in a way that will produce mediocre results--such as expanding into a
commodity line of business.
Appropriate levels of debt vary from industry to industry, so it is best to construct a relative
filter against industry norms. We screened out firms that had higher levels of total liabilities to
total assets than their industry median. The ratio of total liabilities to total assets is more
encompassing than just looking at ratios based upon long-term debt such as the debt-equity
ratio.
Strong & Improving Earnings
Buffett invests only in a business whose future earnings are predictable to a high degree of
certainty. Companies with predictable earnings have good business economics and produce
cash that can be reinvested or paid out to shareholders. Earnings levels are critical in
valuation. As earnings increase, the stock price will eventually reflect this growth.
Buffett looks for strong long-term growth as well as an indication of an upward trend. In the
book, Mary Buffett looks at both the 10- and five-year growth rates. Stock Investor Professional
contains only seven years of data, so we examined the seven-year growth rate as the long-term
growth rate and the three-year growth rate for the intermediate-term growth rate.
For our screen, we first required that a company's seven-year earnings growth rate be higher
than that of 75% of the stocks in the overall database. Stock Investor Professional includes
percentile ranks for growth rates, so we specified a percentile rank greater than 75.
It is best if the earnings also show an upward trend. Buffett compares the intermediate-term
growth rate to the long-term growth rate and looks for an expanding level. For our next filter,
we required that the three-year growth rate in earnings be greater than the seven-year growth
rate. This further reduced the number of passing companies to 213. Not surprisingly, the
companies passing the Buffett screen have very high growth rates--as a group, nearly three
times the median for the whole database.
Consumer monopolies should show both strong and consistent earnings. Wild swings in earnings
are characteristic of commodity businesses. A examination of year-by-year earnings should be
performed as part of the valuation. The earnings per share for Nike are displayed in the Buffett
valuation spreadsheet. Note that earnings per share growth has been strong and consistent with
only one year in which earnings did not increase from the previous period.
A screen requiring an increase in earnings for each of the last seven years would be too
stringent and not be in keeping with the Buffett philosophy. However, a filter requiring positive
earnings for each of the last seven years should help to eliminate some of the commodity-
based businesses with wild earnings swings.
A Consistent Focus
Companies that stray too far from their base of operation often end up in trouble. Peter Lynch
also avoided profitable companies diversifying into other areas. Lynch termed these
diworseifications. Quaker Oats' purchase and subsequent sale of Snapple is a good example of
this common mistake.
Companies should expand into related areas that offer high return potential. Nike's past
development of a line of athletic clothing to complement its athletic shoe business is an
example of a extension that makes sense. This factor is clearly a qualitative screen that cannot
be done with the computer.
Buyback of Shares
Buffett views share repurchases favorably since they cause per share earnings increases for
those who don't sell, resulting in an increase in the stock's market price. This is a difficult
variable to screen as most data services do not indicate this variable. You can screen for a
decreasing number of outstanding shares, but this factor is best analyzed during the valuation
process.
Investing Retained Earnings
A company should retain its earnings if its rate of return on its investment is higher than the
investor could earn on his own. Dividends should only be paid if they would be better employed
in other companies. If the earnings are properly reinvested in the company, earnings should
rise over time and stock price valuation will also rise to reflect the increasing value of the
business.
An important factor in the desire to reinvest earnings is that the earnings are not subject to
personal income taxes unless they are paid out in the form of dividends. The use of retained
earnings delays personal income taxes until the stock is sold.
Buffett examines management's use of retained earnings, looking for management that have
proven it is able to employ retained earnings in the new moneymaking ventures, or for stock
buybacks when they offer a greater return.
Good Return on Equity
Buffett seeks companies with above average return on equity. Mary Buffett indicates that the
average return on equity over the last 30 years has been around 12%.
We created a custom field that averaged the return on equity for the last seven years to
provide a better indication of the normal profitability for the company. During the valuation
process, this average should be checked against more current figures to assure that the past is
still indicative of the future direction of the company. Our screen looks for average return on
equity of 12% or greater.
Inflation Adjustments
Consumer monopolies can typically adjust their prices quickly to inflation without significant
reductions in unit sales since there is little price competition to keep prices in check. This
factor is best applied through a qualitative examination of a company during the valuation
stage.
Reinvesting Capital
In Buffett's view, the real value of consumer monopolies is in their intangibles--for instance,
brand-name loyalty, regulatory licenses, and patents. They do not have to rely heavily on
investments in land, plant, and equipment, and often produce products that are low tech.
Therefore they tend to have large free cash flows (operating cash flow less dividends and
capital expenditures) and low debt. Retained earnings must first go toward maintaining current
operations at competitive levels. This is a factor that is also best examined at the time of the
company valuation although a screen for relative levels of free cash flow might help to confirm
a company's status.
The above basic questions help to indicate whether the company is potentially a consumer
monopoly and worthy of further analysis. However, stocks passing the screens
are not automatic buys. The next test revolves around the issue of value.
The Price is Right
(Using the Spreadsheet)
The price that you pay for a stock determines the rate of return--the higher the initial price,
the lower the overall return. The lower the initial price paid, the higher the return. Buffett
first picks the business, and then lets the price of the company determine when to purchase
the firm. The goal is to buy an excellent business at a price that makes business sense.
Valuation equates a company's stock price to a relative benchmark. A $500 dollar per share
stock may be cheap, while a $2 per share stock may be expensive.
Buffett uses a number of different methods to evaluate share price. Three techniques are
highlighted in the book with specific examples and are used in the buffet spreadsheet
template.
Buffett prefers to concentrate his investments in a few strong companies that are priced well.
He feels that diversification is performed by investors to protect themselves from their
stupidity.
Earnings Yield
Buffett treats earnings per share as the return on his investment, much like how a business
owner views these types of profits. Buffett likes to compute the earnings yield (earnings per
share divided by share price) because it presents a rate of return that can be compared quickly
to other investments.
Buffett goes as far as to view stocks as bonds with variable yields, and their yields equate to
the firm's underlying earnings. The analysis is completely dependent upon the predictability
and stability of the earnings, which explains the emphasis on earnings strength within the
preliminary screens.
Nike has an earnings yield of 5.7% (cell C13, computed by dividing earnings per share of $2.77
(cell C9) by the price $48.25 (cell C8)). Buffett likes to compare the company earnings yield to
the long-term government bond yield. An earnings yield near the government bond yield is
considered attractive. With government bonds yielding around 6% currently (cell C17), Nike
compares very favorably. By paying $48 dollars per share for Nike, an investor gets an earnings
yield return equal to the interest yield on bonds. The bond interest is cash in hand but it is
static, while the earnings of Nike should grow over time and push the stock price up.
Historical Earnings Growth
Another approach Buffett uses is to project the annual compound rate of return based on
historical earnings per share increases. For example, earnings per share at Nike have increased
at a compound annual growth rate of 18.9% over the last seven years (cell B32). If earnings per
share increase for the next 10 years at this same growth rate of 18.9%, earnings per share in
year 10 will be $15.58. [$2.77 x ((1 + 0.189)^10)]. (Note this value is found in cells B49 and
E39) This estimated earnings per share figure can then be multiplied by the average price-
earnings ratio of 14.0 (cell H10) to provide an estimate of price [$15.58 x 14.0=$217.43]. (Note
this value is found in cell E42) If dividends are paid, an estimate of the amount of dividends
paid over the 10-year period should also be added to the year 10 price [$217.43 + $13.29 =
$230.72]. (Note this value is found in cell E43)
Once this future price is estimated, projected rates of return can be determined over the 10-
year period based on the current selling price of the stock. Buffett requires a
return of at least 15%. For Nike, comparing the projected total gain of $230.72 to the current
price of $48.25 leads projected rate of return of 16.9% [($230.72/$48.25) ^
(1/10) - 1]. (Note this value is found in cell E45)
Sustainable Growth
The third approach detailed in "Buffettology" is based upon the sustainable growth rate model.
Buffett uses the average rate of return on equity and average retention ratio (1 average payout
ratio) to calculate the sustainable growth rate [ ROE x ( 1 - payout ratio)]. The sustainable
growth rate is used to calculate the book value per share in year 10 [BVPS ((1 + sustainable
growth rate )^10)]. Earnings per share can be estimated in year 10 by multiplying the average
return on equity by the projected book value per share [ROE x BVPS]. To estimate the future
price, you multiply the earnings by the average price-earnings ratio [EPS x P/E]. If dividends
are paid, they can be added to the projected price to compute the total gain.
For example, Nike's sustainable growth rate is 19.2% [22.8% x (1 - 0.159)].(Sustainable growth
rate is found in cell H11) Thus, book value per share should grow at this rate to roughly $65.94
in 10 years [$11.38 x ((1 + 0.192)^10)]. (Note this value is found in cell B64) If return on equity
remains 22.8% (cell H6) in the tenth year, earnings per share that year would be $15.06 [ 0.228
x $65.94]. (Note this value is found in cell E54) The estimated earnings per share can then be
multiplied by the average price-earnings ratio to project the price of $210.23 [$15.06 x 14.0].
(Note this value is located in cell E56) Since dividends are paid, use an estimate of the amount
of dividends paid over the 10-year period to project the rate of return of 16.5% [(($210.23 +
$12.72)/ $48.25) ^ (1/10) - 1]. (Note this return estimate is found in cell E60)
Conclusion
The Warren Buffett approach to investing makes use of "folly and discipline": the discipline of
the investor to identify excellent businesses and wait for the folly of the market to buy these
businesses at attractive prices. Most investors have little trouble understanding Buffett's
philosophy. The approach encompasses many widely held investment principles. Its successful
implementation is dependent upon the dedication of the investor to learn and follow the
principles.
John Bajkowski is editor of Computerized Investing and senior financial analyst of AAII.
(c) Computerized Investing - January/February 1998, Volume XVII, No.1
absolute rubbish. Buffett has backed up his beliefs with a successful track record through
Berkshire Hathaway, his publicly traded holding company.
Maria Crawford Scott examined Warren Buffett's approach in the January 1998 issue of the AAII
Journal. Table 1 below provides a summary of Buffett's investment style. In this article, we
develop a screen to identify promising businesses and then use valuation models to measure
the attractiveness of stocks passing the preliminary screen.
Buffett has never expounded extensively on his investment approach, although it can be
gleaned from his writings in the Berkshire Hathaway annual reports. Many books by outsiders
have attempted to explain Buffett's investment approach. One recently published book that
discusses his approach in an interesting and methodical fashion is "Buffettology: The Previously
Unexplained Techniques That Have Made Warren Buffett the World's Most Famous Investor," by
Mary Buffett, a former daughter-in-law of Buffett's, and David Clark, a family friend and
portfolio manager [published by Simon & Schuster, 800-223-2336; $27.00]. This book was used
as the basis for this article.
Monopolies vs. Commodities
Warren Buffett seeks first to identify an excellent business and then to acquire the firm if the
price is right. Buffett is a buy-and-hold investor who prefers to hold the stock ofa good
company earning 15% year after year over jumping from investment to investment with the
hope of a quick 25% gain. Once a good company is identified and purchased at an attractive
price, it is held for the long-term until the business loses its attractiveness or until a more
attractive alternative investment becomes available.
Buffett seeks businesses whose product or service will be in constant and growing demand. In
his view, businesses can be divided into two basic types:
Commodity-based firms, selling products where price is the single most important factor
determining purchase. Buffett avoids commodity-based firms. They are characterized with high
levels of competition in which the low-cost producer wins because of the freedom to establish
prices. Management is key for the long-term success of these types of firms.
Consumer monopolies, selling products where there is no effective competitor, either due to a
patent or brand name or similar intangible that makes the product or service unique.
While Buffett is considered a value investor, he passes up the stocks of commodity-based firms
even if they can be purchased at a price below the intrinsic value of the firm. An enterprise
with poor inherent economics often remains that way. The stock of a mediocre business treads
water.
How do you spot a commodity-based company? Buffett looks for these characteristics:
The firm has low profit margins (net income divided by sales);
The firm has low return on equity (earnings per share divided by book value per share);
Absence of any brand-name loyalty for its products;
The presence of multiple producers;
The existence of substantial excess capacity;
Profits tend to be erratic; and
The firm's profitability depends upon management's ability to optimize the use of tangible assets.
Buffett seeks out consumer monopolies. These are companies that have managed to create a
product or service that is somehow unique and difficult to reproduce by competitors, either
due to brand-name loyalty, a particular niche that only a limited number companies can enter,
or an unregulated but legal monopoly such as a patent.
Consumer monopolies can be businesses that sell products or services. Buffett reveals three
types of monopolies:
Businesses that make products that wear out fast or are used up quickly and have brand-name
appeal that merchants must carry to attract customers. Nike is a good example of a firm with a
strong brand name demanded by customers. Any store selling athletic shoes must carry Nike
products to remain competitive. Other examples include leading newspapers, drug companies
with patents, and popular brand-name restaurants such as McDonald's.
Communications firms that provide a repetitive service that manufacturers must use to
persuade the public to buy the manufacturer's products. All businesses must advertise their
items, and many of the available media face little competition. These include worldwide
advertising agencies, magazine publishers, newspapers, and telecommunications networks.
Businesses that provide repetitive consumer services that people and businesses are in constant
need of. Examples include tax preparers, insurance companies, and investment firms.
Mary Buffett suggests going to your local 7-Eleven or White Hen Pantry to identify many of
these "must-have" products. These stores typically carry a very limited line of must-have
products such as Marlboro cigarettes and Wrigley's gum. However, with the guidance of the
factors used to identify attractive companies, we can establish a basic screen to identify
potential investments worthy of further analysis.
The rules used for our Buffett screen are identified and discussed in Table 2. AAII's Stock
Investor Professional was used to perform the screen. Consumer monopolies typically have high
profit margins because of their unique niche; however, a simple screen for high margins may
highlight weak firms in industries with traditionally high margins, but low turnover levels.
Our first screening filters looked for firms with both gross operating and net profit margins
above the median for their industry. The operating margin concerns itself with the costs
directly associated with production of the goods and services, while the net margin takes all of
the company activities and actions into account.
Understand How It Works
As is common with successful investors, Buffett only invests in companies he can understand.
Individuals should try to invest in areas where they possess some specialized knowledge and
can more effectively judge a company, its industry, and its competitive environment. While it
is difficult to construct a quantitative filter, an investor should be able to identify areas of
interest. An investor should only consider analyzing those firms operating in areas that they can
clearly grasp.
Conservative Financing
Consumer monopolies tend to have strong cash flows, with little need for long-term debt.
Buffett does not object to the use of debt for a good purpose--for example, if a company uses
debt to finance the purchase of another consumer monopoly. However, he does object if the
added debt is used in a way that will produce mediocre results--such as expanding into a
commodity line of business.
Appropriate levels of debt vary from industry to industry, so it is best to construct a relative
filter against industry norms. We screened out firms that had higher levels of total liabilities to
total assets than their industry median. The ratio of total liabilities to total assets is more
encompassing than just looking at ratios based upon long-term debt such as the debt-equity
ratio.
Strong & Improving Earnings
Buffett invests only in a business whose future earnings are predictable to a high degree of
certainty. Companies with predictable earnings have good business economics and produce
cash that can be reinvested or paid out to shareholders. Earnings levels are critical in
valuation. As earnings increase, the stock price will eventually reflect this growth.
Buffett looks for strong long-term growth as well as an indication of an upward trend. In the
book, Mary Buffett looks at both the 10- and five-year growth rates. Stock Investor Professional
contains only seven years of data, so we examined the seven-year growth rate as the long-term
growth rate and the three-year growth rate for the intermediate-term growth rate.
For our screen, we first required that a company's seven-year earnings growth rate be higher
than that of 75% of the stocks in the overall database. Stock Investor Professional includes
percentile ranks for growth rates, so we specified a percentile rank greater than 75.
It is best if the earnings also show an upward trend. Buffett compares the intermediate-term
growth rate to the long-term growth rate and looks for an expanding level. For our next filter,
we required that the three-year growth rate in earnings be greater than the seven-year growth
rate. This further reduced the number of passing companies to 213. Not surprisingly, the
companies passing the Buffett screen have very high growth rates--as a group, nearly three
times the median for the whole database.
Consumer monopolies should show both strong and consistent earnings. Wild swings in earnings
are characteristic of commodity businesses. A examination of year-by-year earnings should be
performed as part of the valuation. The earnings per share for Nike are displayed in the Buffett
valuation spreadsheet. Note that earnings per share growth has been strong and consistent with
only one year in which earnings did not increase from the previous period.
A screen requiring an increase in earnings for each of the last seven years would be too
stringent and not be in keeping with the Buffett philosophy. However, a filter requiring positive
earnings for each of the last seven years should help to eliminate some of the commodity-
based businesses with wild earnings swings.
A Consistent Focus
Companies that stray too far from their base of operation often end up in trouble. Peter Lynch
also avoided profitable companies diversifying into other areas. Lynch termed these
diworseifications. Quaker Oats' purchase and subsequent sale of Snapple is a good example of
this common mistake.
Companies should expand into related areas that offer high return potential. Nike's past
development of a line of athletic clothing to complement its athletic shoe business is an
example of a extension that makes sense. This factor is clearly a qualitative screen that cannot
be done with the computer.
Buyback of Shares
Buffett views share repurchases favorably since they cause per share earnings increases for
those who don't sell, resulting in an increase in the stock's market price. This is a difficult
variable to screen as most data services do not indicate this variable. You can screen for a
decreasing number of outstanding shares, but this factor is best analyzed during the valuation
process.
Investing Retained Earnings
A company should retain its earnings if its rate of return on its investment is higher than the
investor could earn on his own. Dividends should only be paid if they would be better employed
in other companies. If the earnings are properly reinvested in the company, earnings should
rise over time and stock price valuation will also rise to reflect the increasing value of the
business.
An important factor in the desire to reinvest earnings is that the earnings are not subject to
personal income taxes unless they are paid out in the form of dividends. The use of retained
earnings delays personal income taxes until the stock is sold.
Buffett examines management's use of retained earnings, looking for management that have
proven it is able to employ retained earnings in the new moneymaking ventures, or for stock
buybacks when they offer a greater return.
Good Return on Equity
Buffett seeks companies with above average return on equity. Mary Buffett indicates that the
average return on equity over the last 30 years has been around 12%.
We created a custom field that averaged the return on equity for the last seven years to
provide a better indication of the normal profitability for the company. During the valuation
process, this average should be checked against more current figures to assure that the past is
still indicative of the future direction of the company. Our screen looks for average return on
equity of 12% or greater.
Inflation Adjustments
Consumer monopolies can typically adjust their prices quickly to inflation without significant
reductions in unit sales since there is little price competition to keep prices in check. This
factor is best applied through a qualitative examination of a company during the valuation
stage.
Reinvesting Capital
In Buffett's view, the real value of consumer monopolies is in their intangibles--for instance,
brand-name loyalty, regulatory licenses, and patents. They do not have to rely heavily on
investments in land, plant, and equipment, and often produce products that are low tech.
Therefore they tend to have large free cash flows (operating cash flow less dividends and
capital expenditures) and low debt. Retained earnings must first go toward maintaining current
operations at competitive levels. This is a factor that is also best examined at the time of the
company valuation although a screen for relative levels of free cash flow might help to confirm
a company's status.
The above basic questions help to indicate whether the company is potentially a consumer
monopoly and worthy of further analysis. However, stocks passing the screens
are not automatic buys. The next test revolves around the issue of value.
The Price is Right
(Using the Spreadsheet)
The price that you pay for a stock determines the rate of return--the higher the initial price,
the lower the overall return. The lower the initial price paid, the higher the return. Buffett
first picks the business, and then lets the price of the company determine when to purchase
the firm. The goal is to buy an excellent business at a price that makes business sense.
Valuation equates a company's stock price to a relative benchmark. A $500 dollar per share
stock may be cheap, while a $2 per share stock may be expensive.
Buffett uses a number of different methods to evaluate share price. Three techniques are
highlighted in the book with specific examples and are used in the buffet spreadsheet
template.
Buffett prefers to concentrate his investments in a few strong companies that are priced well.
He feels that diversification is performed by investors to protect themselves from their
stupidity.
Earnings Yield
Buffett treats earnings per share as the return on his investment, much like how a business
owner views these types of profits. Buffett likes to compute the earnings yield (earnings per
share divided by share price) because it presents a rate of return that can be compared quickly
to other investments.
Buffett goes as far as to view stocks as bonds with variable yields, and their yields equate to
the firm's underlying earnings. The analysis is completely dependent upon the predictability
and stability of the earnings, which explains the emphasis on earnings strength within the
preliminary screens.
Nike has an earnings yield of 5.7% (cell C13, computed by dividing earnings per share of $2.77
(cell C9) by the price $48.25 (cell C8)). Buffett likes to compare the company earnings yield to
the long-term government bond yield. An earnings yield near the government bond yield is
considered attractive. With government bonds yielding around 6% currently (cell C17), Nike
compares very favorably. By paying $48 dollars per share for Nike, an investor gets an earnings
yield return equal to the interest yield on bonds. The bond interest is cash in hand but it is
static, while the earnings of Nike should grow over time and push the stock price up.
Historical Earnings Growth
Another approach Buffett uses is to project the annual compound rate of return based on
historical earnings per share increases. For example, earnings per share at Nike have increased
at a compound annual growth rate of 18.9% over the last seven years (cell B32). If earnings per
share increase for the next 10 years at this same growth rate of 18.9%, earnings per share in
year 10 will be $15.58. [$2.77 x ((1 + 0.189)^10)]. (Note this value is found in cells B49 and
E39) This estimated earnings per share figure can then be multiplied by the average price-
earnings ratio of 14.0 (cell H10) to provide an estimate of price [$15.58 x 14.0=$217.43]. (Note
this value is found in cell E42) If dividends are paid, an estimate of the amount of dividends
paid over the 10-year period should also be added to the year 10 price [$217.43 + $13.29 =
$230.72]. (Note this value is found in cell E43)
Once this future price is estimated, projected rates of return can be determined over the 10-
year period based on the current selling price of the stock. Buffett requires a
return of at least 15%. For Nike, comparing the projected total gain of $230.72 to the current
price of $48.25 leads projected rate of return of 16.9% [($230.72/$48.25) ^
(1/10) - 1]. (Note this value is found in cell E45)
Sustainable Growth
The third approach detailed in "Buffettology" is based upon the sustainable growth rate model.
Buffett uses the average rate of return on equity and average retention ratio (1 average payout
ratio) to calculate the sustainable growth rate [ ROE x ( 1 - payout ratio)]. The sustainable
growth rate is used to calculate the book value per share in year 10 [BVPS ((1 + sustainable
growth rate )^10)]. Earnings per share can be estimated in year 10 by multiplying the average
return on equity by the projected book value per share [ROE x BVPS]. To estimate the future
price, you multiply the earnings by the average price-earnings ratio [EPS x P/E]. If dividends
are paid, they can be added to the projected price to compute the total gain.
For example, Nike's sustainable growth rate is 19.2% [22.8% x (1 - 0.159)].(Sustainable growth
rate is found in cell H11) Thus, book value per share should grow at this rate to roughly $65.94
in 10 years [$11.38 x ((1 + 0.192)^10)]. (Note this value is found in cell B64) If return on equity
remains 22.8% (cell H6) in the tenth year, earnings per share that year would be $15.06 [ 0.228
x $65.94]. (Note this value is found in cell E54) The estimated earnings per share can then be
multiplied by the average price-earnings ratio to project the price of $210.23 [$15.06 x 14.0].
(Note this value is located in cell E56) Since dividends are paid, use an estimate of the amount
of dividends paid over the 10-year period to project the rate of return of 16.5% [(($210.23 +
$12.72)/ $48.25) ^ (1/10) - 1]. (Note this return estimate is found in cell E60)
Conclusion
The Warren Buffett approach to investing makes use of "folly and discipline": the discipline of
the investor to identify excellent businesses and wait for the folly of the market to buy these
businesses at attractive prices. Most investors have little trouble understanding Buffett's
philosophy. The approach encompasses many widely held investment principles. Its successful
implementation is dependent upon the dedication of the investor to learn and follow the
principles.
John Bajkowski is editor of Computerized Investing and senior financial analyst of AAII.
(c) Computerized Investing - January/February 1998, Volume XVII, No.1
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